The facts:
# of new HIV cases reported in 2005: 35,537
# of states reporting in 2005: 38
# of new HIV cases reported in 2006: 52,878
# of states reporting: 45 states (includes several densely populated states which were not counted in 2005: California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Maine, Delaware and Rhode Island)
total overall increase in cases cited on 365gay and elsewhere: 48%
estimated 2006 population of the 7 new states reporting: roughly 62 million
estimated 2006 population of these 7 states as percent of US total: 21%
While we don’t want to suggest that any noticeable rise in HIV infection isn’t cause for concern-especially at a time when “bareback” is such a popular search term on craigslist/Manhunt-we just want to point out that statistics can (almost) always be manipulated to say what you want them to say, and major news outlets like the New York Times have so far avoided this story, probably for want of some clearer analysis. And organizations like Gay Men’s Health Crisis (GMHC) in New York and the AIDS Healthcare Foundation are quick to leap on headlines about the 48% figure in order to appeal for more funding for their organizations-and certainly in New York, where HIV cases have been on the rise among men, this funding is probably justified.
But data always have to be put in context, and with the states of California and Illinois not even part of the 2005 figure, comparing that to the 2006 figure is not exactly apples-to-apples. HIV isn’t just a gay disease, we know, but without numbers from the way gay metropolises of Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego, that 2005 figure is kinda different in context, no?
ALSO: The CDC released this “Dear Colleague” letter today in which they state, quite plainly, “These data do not represent an increase in HIV diagnoses or HIV incidence… This increase in the number of states reporting has reulted in an increase in the number of reported cases of HlV from 35,537 in 2005 to 52,878 in 2006.”
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Interesting article.
It’s worth pointing out that most people who go for an HIV test are infact “young gay men under 30 from metropolitan areas” so the credibility of these statistics will no doubt be biased as a result. Of course this group will appear disproportionately affected by the apparent rise in HIV diagnoses.
Don’t forget that in 2008 the use of “Instant HIV” tests in the state of New York went very wrong, some results were coming back as with a false positive rate of over 50%… were these figures corrected at a later date when they were reconfirmed as negative?
These tests are forced onto vulnerable people by well-funded “AIDS charities” who no doubt already have lifestyles which can cause false-positive results and low CD4 counts such as recreational drug use and even the common cold!! These tests are developed by the pharmaceutical industry who in turn provide a great deal of undisclosed sums of funding to these”AIDS Charities” who then encourage anyone who may be positive to begin toxic anti-retro viral treatments and combination therapy – again developed by and funding the pharmaceutical industry. It’s a nasty, dark, unaccountable situation and one which no doubt is wrecking people’s lives.
We are well aware of the rise in cases among young men, and we noted in particular, and previously wrote about, the NYC Health Dept’s study, released a few months ago, reporting the 34% increase of cases in men under 30. This obviously points to a rise in unprotected sex and a general ignorance and apathy toward potential infection among the newest generation of gay men.
We were not trying to poo-poo the overall number so much as we wanted to point out that the other gay news outlets all leapt on a spurious figure without doing any of the math themselves. A 48% increase is a pretty outrageous claim and HIV/AIDS awareness programs should seek to base their press releases on more solid, and well contextualized information. The figures concerning young men in metropolitan areas, for instance, would probably be far more compelling and less easily refutable.
If you want to act like an “actual news organization”, then try digging a little deeper into the numbers.
Try looking at the rates of new HIV cases in MSM (Gaymen) in the 14-24 age category, or the rates of new infections amongst black MSM under 30. There are pockets of very alarming increases and they are primarily in gaymen under 30 years old.
While the overall numbers may look like only a slight increase, the increases are disproportionately skewed towards young gay men. The same young men that are being taught by bareback porn that it’s cool to take loads up their asses!
% increases one or the other should not really matter. The fact that there were almost 53,000 new cases of HIV infections in the USA is 53,000 new cases too many!
Instead of trying to poo-poo the numbers try looking a little deeper.